Crude Up Marginally As Risk Recovers, US EIA Stock Data Due Later

Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday after rising moderately on Monday and are up around 0.4% today, despite soft China oil imports. The recovery in risk appetite has also helped. The USD index is up 0.2%. The market remains nervous about attacks on Israel by Iran and Hezbollah but this is only likely to worry oil markets if there is an impact on output and exports from the region.

• WTI is up 0.4% today to $73.51/bbl, close to the intraday high of $73.59. It fell to a low of $72.58 early in the session. A bear threat remains in place with initial support at $71.67. Resistance is at $74.59.
• Brent is 0.4% higher at $76.77/bbl after a peak of $76.84 which followed a low of $75.96. The benchmark remains in a bear cycle but is trading above initial support at $74.96. Key support is at $73.31. It does appear oversold though and initial resistance is at $77.95.
• China’s oil imports remain weak with volumes in July down 3.1% y/y and refined products -27.8% y/y. In levels, crude was at 42.34mn tonnes, the lowest in almost two years. China is the world’s largest importer of oil and the market has been concern about its economic strength for some time. The EIA reduced its 2025 oil demand expectations due to a softer China.
• Bloomberg reported that US crude inventories rose a less-than-expected 0.176mn barrels, according to people familiar with the API data. Gasoline rose 3.31mn and distillate 1.22mn. The official EIA data is out today and last week recorded its fifth consecutive drawdown.
• Later the Fed’s Collins and ECB’s McCaul appear. US June consumer credit, German June IP & trade and Canadian July PMI are released as well as BoC’s summary of deliberations.