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ARGENTINA: Current Account and Economic Activity Data Scheduled

ARGENTINA
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  • Economic activity data is expected to post a very moderate rise in October, of 0.2% M/m. The annual reading is still expected to be negative at -1.8% y/y, an improvement from -3.3% in the prior month. Consumer confidence and financial conditions improved in October, which points to a relatively stronger services.
  • Indeed, Q3 GDP surprised expectations to the upside on Monday, rising 3.9% Q/q versus an estimate of 3.4%. According to the latest results of a Bloomberg News survey of 17 economists GDP for 2024 is expected at -3.6% y/y vs prior -3.8%, but then rising in 2025 to +4% y/y. Alongside, current account and wages data, figures will be released at 1900GMT/1400ET:
    • Q3 Current Account Balance, prior $3.49b
    • Oct. Economic Activity Index YoY, est. -1.8%, prior -3.3%;
    • Oct. Wages MoM, prior 4.7%
  • According to JP Morgan, Argentina’s largest companies are starting to revive long-term investment plans as the economy looks to emerge from recession. The bank currently forecasts $4B in corporate debt sales in 2025, a dip from this year’s levels, however, JPM sees a shift. They say more money is being raised for capital expenditures instead of refinancing maturities, adding that corporate growth may push next year’s sales to as high as $6 billion.
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  • Economic activity data is expected to post a very moderate rise in October, of 0.2% M/m. The annual reading is still expected to be negative at -1.8% y/y, an improvement from -3.3% in the prior month. Consumer confidence and financial conditions improved in October, which points to a relatively stronger services.
  • Indeed, Q3 GDP surprised expectations to the upside on Monday, rising 3.9% Q/q versus an estimate of 3.4%. According to the latest results of a Bloomberg News survey of 17 economists GDP for 2024 is expected at -3.6% y/y vs prior -3.8%, but then rising in 2025 to +4% y/y. Alongside, current account and wages data, figures will be released at 1900GMT/1400ET:
    • Q3 Current Account Balance, prior $3.49b
    • Oct. Economic Activity Index YoY, est. -1.8%, prior -3.3%;
    • Oct. Wages MoM, prior 4.7%
  • According to JP Morgan, Argentina’s largest companies are starting to revive long-term investment plans as the economy looks to emerge from recession. The bank currently forecasts $4B in corporate debt sales in 2025, a dip from this year’s levels, however, JPM sees a shift. They say more money is being raised for capital expenditures instead of refinancing maturities, adding that corporate growth may push next year’s sales to as high as $6 billion.