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CZKJPY Approaching Key Resistance at 5.4550

CZECHIA
  • The aggressive tightening cycle run by the CNB continue to support CZKJPY, which is up over 30% since its low reached in May 2020 following the Covid19 shock.
  • The pair broke above its 5.40 resistance last week and is gradually approaching its key resistance at 5.4550, which was the high reached in February 2018 (when liquidity peaked in the EM world before Covid).
  • A break above that level would bring us to October 2008 highs.
  • The recent ECB developments and the sharp rise in the front end of the Euro curve could market a pause on the EURCZK pair and lead to an increase in interests for going long the CZK against currencies with a more ‘dormant’ CB (i.e. BoJ).
  • On the downside, next support to watch below 5.40 stands at 5.3380.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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