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Daly: Shouldn’t Declare Victory On One Month Of Data

FED
  • SF Fed’s Daly (’24 voter) tells the WSJ that her views are very consistent with the SEP from the Dec meeting.
  • Unsurprisingly, therefore, the overall stance is consistent with the minutes wanting to avoid an easing in financial conditions: “Something above” 5% is “absolutely likely” for the peak rate and it will be challenging to find the peak rate to pause at but the Fed shouldn’t declare victory based on one month of data as doing so early and stopping could worsen the economy.
  • Right now, she sees a case can be made for either a 25bp or 50bp hike in Feb but also that hiking in more gradual steps lets the Fed react more nimbly.
  • Relatively hawkish on inflation: core services ex housing inflation has shown no sense of coming down, sees more persistence in aspects of inflation with it being tough to get down.
  • Moderately more optimistic on labour market: wages coming down is consistent with labor market slowing and gives hope that service inflation is slowing, labour supply and demand are coming better into balance.
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