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Danske No Longer Sees The ECB Hiking In 2023

ECB

Danske revises its ECB outlook following today's decision:

  • "We no longer expect the ECB to hike policy rates in Q1 next year. We expect the ECB to hike by 50bp in September and 25bp in both October and December. We see risks slightly skewed to fewer hikes. That means that we anticipate a cycle hike of 1% on the deposit rate."
  • On BTP weakness: "The lack of details during the press conference on how, when, on what the TPI programme may need to be activated led to a significant disappointment for the BTPs-Bund spreads... The lack of clarity on the TPI instrument was thereby no longer the relief markets had hoped for. "
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Danske revises its ECB outlook following today's decision:

  • "We no longer expect the ECB to hike policy rates in Q1 next year. We expect the ECB to hike by 50bp in September and 25bp in both October and December. We see risks slightly skewed to fewer hikes. That means that we anticipate a cycle hike of 1% on the deposit rate."
  • On BTP weakness: "The lack of details during the press conference on how, when, on what the TPI programme may need to be activated led to a significant disappointment for the BTPs-Bund spreads... The lack of clarity on the TPI instrument was thereby no longer the relief markets had hoped for. "