MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, August 12

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY73.83 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1458; +0.45% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY74.5 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1458 MON VS 7.1449

MNI BRIEF: Brazilian July Inflation Up To 4.50%

MNI: CANADIAN JUN BUILDING PERMITS -13.9% MOM

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 588; OIL RIGS 485; GAS RIGS 97

Canada Unemployment Holds Steady While Wages Still Run Hot

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Two ways of looking at private sector average weekly earnings (1/2)

UK DATA
Data BulletDataHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • The Bank of England’s forecast for Q2 private average weekly earnings is 5.141%. This would be a deceleration from the 5.56%Y/Y in the 3-months to May and 5.88%Y/Y in Q1. 5/6 of the previews that we have read look for 5.2%Y/Y in Q2, slightly above the BOE’s forecast. The BOE forecast (rounded to 1dp) was unchanged from the May MPR forecast and we would concur that risks seem to skew to the upside.
  • Labour market data is compiled from data that only produces a stratified random sample when 3 months of data (cohorts) are combined (hence the headlines looks at it the 3-month Y/Y print). At this point of the year, when there have been a number of salary negotiations and the NLW increase in April, one of our preferred ways to look at private AWE is to look at how much earnings increased for the cohort last month (1.6ppt) and add that to the cohort that will be surveyed in June. If we do that we would get a single month Y/Y print of 5.08%Y/Y in June (up from 4.90%Y/Y in May) but the 3-month average would fall back to 5.28%Y/Y in the 3-months to June (i.e. Q2).
198 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • The Bank of England’s forecast for Q2 private average weekly earnings is 5.141%. This would be a deceleration from the 5.56%Y/Y in the 3-months to May and 5.88%Y/Y in Q1. 5/6 of the previews that we have read look for 5.2%Y/Y in Q2, slightly above the BOE’s forecast. The BOE forecast (rounded to 1dp) was unchanged from the May MPR forecast and we would concur that risks seem to skew to the upside.
  • Labour market data is compiled from data that only produces a stratified random sample when 3 months of data (cohorts) are combined (hence the headlines looks at it the 3-month Y/Y print). At this point of the year, when there have been a number of salary negotiations and the NLW increase in April, one of our preferred ways to look at private AWE is to look at how much earnings increased for the cohort last month (1.6ppt) and add that to the cohort that will be surveyed in June. If we do that we would get a single month Y/Y print of 5.08%Y/Y in June (up from 4.90%Y/Y in May) but the 3-month average would fall back to 5.28%Y/Y in the 3-months to June (i.e. Q2).