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Day ahead

GILTS
  • Gilts have followed core fixed income higher and opened above yesterday's highs this morning with a number of risk-off factors driving sentiment (Covid, Chinse regulatory reforms, Afghanistan).
  • Gilt futures hit a high of 130.08 before moving back to around the psychological 130.00 level. Our technical analyst sees the first resistance at the 200-dma at 130.61.
  • This morning's labour market data saw headline employment in line with expectations and unemployment lower. The more timely HMRC PAYE data saw payrolled employees pick up by 182k in July and is now only 0.7% below the February 2020 peak.
  • The week ahead remains big for data. Tomorrow will see inflation data, where any big surprises have the potential to have a decent impact on the market. Friday will see retail sales and public finance data, both for July. Public finance data is unlikely to be market moving but retail sales data will give us the best estimate yet of the state of consumer spending in July.
  • Today will also see the only gilt supply of the week with the 25-year 0.875% Jan-46 gilt on offer for GBP2.0bln.
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