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Dealer Comments 20Y Auction

US TSYS/SUPPLY
  • Soc Gen is generally negative on today's 20Y auction as the "sharp increase in auction size coupled with a poor performance from the August 30y auction is cause for further concern. However, relatively low dealer holdings in the >11y maturity bucket means that dealers can potentially backstop the auction if it sees poor demand from other investor categories."
  • JP Morgan: "Overall, with yields at average levels, relative valuations fair, and the roll only modestly wide relative to fair value, it's not easy to discern the incremental buyer of the 20-year sector. Thus, it will require robust end-user demand for this supply to be digested smoothly."
  • Cantor Fitzgerald appears cautious, noting while "setups leading in and auction results/stats are hard to gauge." Though Tsys have "traded with an underlying bid through most of this week with 20s one of the best performing benchmarks but the additional auction size and summer volumes may result in tepid demand."
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