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MEXICO: Deputy FinMin Amador Says Economy Not Entering Recession

MEXICO
EM BulletMexicoBulletEmerging Market NewsNorth America
  • Deputy Finance Minister Edgar Amador said that the economy is not entering into a recession despite the recent slowdown in growth, as he presented the Q4 public finance report today. Noting the risks from tariffs, Amador said that the government can’t calculate the effect of potential US tariffs on the country without details. Amador said that the downturn in manufacturing is temporary and that the sector had showed improvement in November.
    • The economy grew by 1.5% last year, he said, driven by consumption and investment, with the former rising by 3.5% y/y in the Jan-Oct period and the latter by 4.7%. Meanwhile, tax revenue reached a record 14.6% of GDP in 2024, despite a 15.1% y/y decline in real oil revenues.
    • Reporting on the weak Q4 GDP data, BBVA says that the decline in industry is the largest since the start of the pandemic, driven by weak construction. They expect the weakness in activity to extend through this year, in a context of high uncertainty for investment. They maintain a 1.0% GDP forecast for this year, with a downward bias.
    • The Mexican peso remains resilient today, despite the soft data, with USDMXN 0.5% lower on the session around 20.40, continuing to respect the well-established short-term parameters of 20.10-90.
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  • Deputy Finance Minister Edgar Amador said that the economy is not entering into a recession despite the recent slowdown in growth, as he presented the Q4 public finance report today. Noting the risks from tariffs, Amador said that the government can’t calculate the effect of potential US tariffs on the country without details. Amador said that the downturn in manufacturing is temporary and that the sector had showed improvement in November.
    • The economy grew by 1.5% last year, he said, driven by consumption and investment, with the former rising by 3.5% y/y in the Jan-Oct period and the latter by 4.7%. Meanwhile, tax revenue reached a record 14.6% of GDP in 2024, despite a 15.1% y/y decline in real oil revenues.
    • Reporting on the weak Q4 GDP data, BBVA says that the decline in industry is the largest since the start of the pandemic, driven by weak construction. They expect the weakness in activity to extend through this year, in a context of high uncertainty for investment. They maintain a 1.0% GDP forecast for this year, with a downward bias.
    • The Mexican peso remains resilient today, despite the soft data, with USDMXN 0.5% lower on the session around 20.40, continuing to respect the well-established short-term parameters of 20.10-90.