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Core PPI Continues to Slow Despite Headline Spike

MNI (London)

EUROZONE JUL PPI +4.0% M/M (FCST +3.7%); JUN +1.3%r M/M

EUROZONE JUL PPI +37.9% Y/Y (FCST +37.3); JUN +36.0%r Y/Y

  • Eurozone factory-gate inflation jumped by +4.0% m/m in July, the fastest pace since +5.3% m/m in March at the onset of the Ukraine war.
  • Diving into the detail of the report highlights optimistic improvements in core readings. Excluding energy, PPI grew by a substantially softer +0.6% m/m, and slowed in the annualised reading by 0.6pp to +15.1% y/y to a four-month low.
  • Yesterday's manufacturing PMIs highlighted manufacturing input and output costs softening further. As demand slows and supply-chain pressures ease, PPI should come down further in upcoming months. This supports a slowdown in headline inflation going forward and will be welcome news for the ECB as CPI is yet to ease at +9.1% y/y.

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