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Deutsche Bank Note High Carry Limits Latam FX Downside, Stay Received Local Rates

LATAM
  • Deutsche Bank substantially reduced their bullish recommendations coming into this year on the view that USD strength will persist. While they expect the USD will continue to dictate direction, they are also of the view that high carry in the region limits the downside for Latam currencies.
  • As such, they see EURBRL in a tight range, look to re-enter MXN longs on better valuation, and expect USDCOP to continue to trade near the lows of the recent range. Meanwhile, they also believe that Treasury sales should cap USDCLP upside near current levels.
  • In the fixed income space, although Deutsche Bank expect duration to perform this year, they have also reduced somewhat their bullish rates recommendations on last year’s rally and upside risk for US yields. As a result, they stay received in Jan 26 in Brazil, 5Y in Mexico, 2032 in Peru and 6M in both Chile and Colombia.
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