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Deutsche Bank - "The case for a Feb-22 hike is stronger"

UK DATA

Deutsche Bank has updated its GDP forecasts following this morning's "material" revision to Q2 GDP.

  • It has revised down H2-21 growth due to the base effects of a stronger H1: "We now see Q3-2021 GDP expanding by 1.8% q-o-q (previously: 2.3%), and Q4-2021 GDP up by 0.7% q-o-q (previously: 1.1%). Risks to quarterly projections, we think, remain tilted to the downside."
  • "Despite the downward revisions to H2 growth, the stronger Q2 revision this morning will likely take 2021 GDP growth up by 7.1%, inching closer to the Bank's August 2021 growth projection (7.25%)."
  • "The growth upgrade for 2021 should reinforce our call for a rate hike in Feb-22 (15bps), as we will now be even closer to pre-pandemic levels of GDP when the Bank sits for the first time next year."
  • "We still expect 2 rate hikes next year (Feb-22, Nov-22), but we are less certain that they come in rapid succession, as market pricing suggests."
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