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Deutsche: Below Consensus CPI On Used Car Hit

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Deutsche see core CPI inflation at +0.31% M/M in April after the +0.32% M/M in March.
  • The below consensus print comes despite strong shelter expectations, with primary rents (+0.5%) and OER (+0.4%), where Deutsche expect rents to stay for the rest of the year.
  • Used cars are seen falling -2.6% M/M whilst supply side disruption and stock issues help see a small rise for new vehicles +0.4% M/M.
  • Travel related ones like lodging away and airfares could come in strong as demand increases but it follows 3.3% and 10.7% respectively whilst they watch other durable goods.
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