GERMANY: Die Linke's Rise Could Impact Prospect Of Debt Brake Reform

One of the most notable political developments in the final weeks of the federal election campaign has been the rise of the far-left progressive Die Linke('The Left'). Having polled at or below the 5% electoral threshold for almost the entirety of the last parliamentary term, Die Linke has climbed to an average of 6.8% in the last week of the campaign and looks on course to retain seats in the Bundestag. 

• Given the intricacies of the German electoral system, a greater number of parties crossing the threshold and winning representation dilutes the seat totals of other parties. With Die Linke seemingly set to retain their seats, focus will be on the pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and far-left nationalist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) as to whether they get 5% of the vote. Polling shows the FDP average over the past two months holding steady at ~4%, while the BSW has fallen from an average of 6.7% in late December to 4.6% in the week ending 19 Feb.
• Die Linke would usually be viewed as a supporter of debt brake reform (and indeed removal). However, given that the incoming gov't (of whatever complexion) may seek to reform the debt brake to allow for increased defence spending, the pacifist Die Linke could vote against such efforts.
• With a two-thirds majority needed, a Bundestag with a sizeable Alternative for Germany (AfD) presence, Die Linke and the FDP could see a blocking minority emerge. 

Germany election preview attached: