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Diesel Cracks Steady as Flows Shift After Russia Sanctions

OIL PRODUCTS

European product inventories are holding above normal and helping to limit market price upside moves. Europe has increased diesel supply from Middle East and Asia to offset the missing Russian supplies due to sanctions implemented on 5 Feb.

  • Diesel spreads are steady today having seen a rally over the last week due to the current refinery maintenance seasons, the expectation of reduced exports from China in March and ongoing uncertainty over Russian product supply to the global market.
  • ARA diesel stocks yesterday showed Gasoil stocks dropping slightly in the week but still about 8% above the five year average.
  • Imports of diesel from Russia into NW Europe fell from an average of 389kb/d between Oct 2021 and Sep 2022 to 18kb/d in Feb 2023 following the European sanctions on Russian supplies according to Vortexa.
  • Saudi Arabia imports increased from 68k b/d from Oct 2021 through Sep 2022 to 202kb/d in Feb 2023. India increased by 110kb/d, China increased to 119kb/d, and South Korea to 45k b/d.
    • US gasoline crack down -0.1$/bbl at 35.08$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -0.2$/bbl at 41.9$/bbl
    • EU Gasoline-Brent down -0.7$/bbl at 17.11$/bbl
    • EU Gasoil-Brent down -0.1$/bbl at 25.31$/bbl

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