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Divergence Rises Between Consumer Confidence and US Equities

US
  • US consumer confidence has remained at depressed levels despite the sharp recovery in equities.
  • Consumer and business sentiment indicators have historically been very linked to the performance of equities.
  • The chart below shows the strong co-movement between the annual % change in US equities and the annual change in Michigan consumer sentiment in the past two decades (until recently).
  • Michigan consumer sentiment fell to a 10-year low in November (below Covid levels) amid elevated uncertainty over the economic outlook and inflation.
  • On the other hand, the loose monetary policy run by central banks have been supporting risky asset such as US equities.
  • Hence, will the Fed be able to tighten without generating an impact on asset prices?

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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