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DIW: "All Signs Point to Recession"

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)
  • The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) sees the German economy as currently in a recession. This is very similar to IFO, who are already predicting a 'winter recession' and was echoed by ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel last week, who stated that a technical German recession was becoming increasingly likely.
  • The DIW economic cycle barometer was similar to the August reading, dipping to 79.8 and remaining well under the average of 100.
  • High inflation, the energy crisis and weak economic outlooks underpin the continued decline. The Ukraine war has had strongly negative consequences on the energy-intensive German industry, which continues to struggle with associated supply issues. The economic slowdown in China has added to declining export demand.
  • As a result, the DIW expects losses of around 5% of GDP in 2022 and 2023.
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