-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessDMP survey increases probability of August cut
The BOE DMP survey showed realised wage growth remaining sticky but on all other metrics this was a pretty dovish report. Expected wage growth is lower, employment growth matched the lowest levels since 2020 while price growth and unit cost growth ticked lower too. This will be encouraging for the more dovish members of the MPC and increases the probability of an August cut, in our view.
- The 3-month average of expected wage growth declined a further 0.3ppt to 4.2%Y/Y in the 3-months to June 2024 and is now down 0.7ppt on the quarter. The last four 3ma readings have now all been below 5%, and this followed 8 consecutive periods of either 5.1%Y/Y or 5.2%Y/Y (and was higher for the 10 periods before that). This is the lowest print of since the survey was begun in May 2022.
- Realised wage growth remained sticky at 6.0%Y/Y in the 3-months to June - unchanged from the 3-months to May, the first time in four months we haven't seen a decline in the 3-month reading (but still 1.0ppt lower than the peak of 7.0%Y/Y in the 3 months to November).
- The single month figure for realised employment growth fell to 0.5% in June, the lowest since August 2021 while the 3-month reading fell 0.4ppt to 1.1% in the 3-months to June, the lowest since the 3-months to October 2021.
- Expected employment growth was down 0.1ppt at 1.2%Y/Y in the 3-months to June (and matching the lows seen in Sep/Oct 2023). Note that the 3-month expected employment growth has not been below 1.2%Y/Y since December 2020.
- Expected price growth remained at 3.9% in the 3-months to June (ticking down slightly on an unrounded basis sa the June reading of 3.6% was below the March reading of 3.7%). This is down from a peak of 6.6%Y/Y in September 2022.
- The May survey included questions on unit cost growth for the first time since July 2023. Realised unit cost growth ticked down in June to 5.7%Y/Y from 6.2%Y/Y in May (down from 9.5%Y/Y in July 2023) while expected unit cost growth was 4.8%Y/Y in June down from 5.4%Y/Y in May (down from 6.8%Y/Y in July 2023).
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.