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CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

CANADA
Political RiskPolicy NewsMarketsCanadaBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Parliament opens Monday to a very different tone than before the summer recess. The NDP ended its deal propping up the minority Liberal government on confidence votes, raising the chance of an early election.
  • Justin Trudeau's Liberals can remain in power by seeking support on a case-by-case basis with either the NDP or the Bloc Quebecois. Both those leaders say they can be persuaded on specific votes if their priorities are met, and have been cool to Conservative demands for an immediate election.
  • Analysts say the reality is the NDP had to end the deal well before the election due next fall to avoid being sunk alongside Liberals far behind Conservatives in the polls. That suggests Trudeau could hang on into early next year -- or perhaps just force an election himself.
  • One critical confidence vote may come after the fall fiscal update; while it’s unlike a full budget it may contain measures that require a vote. Trudeau has signaled he will continue with deficit spending.
  • Trudeau last Monday named Mark Carney as head of a group to study economic growth and productivity. He has also been touted as a potential future leadership candidate or finance minister.
  • Sample headlines: Justin Trudeau says he’s staying, but his government acts like time is almost up (Globe and Mail); The Tories need to add some starch to their blue-collar pitch (Globe); Justin Trudeau’s flock is abandoning its shepherd (Globe).
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  • Parliament opens Monday to a very different tone than before the summer recess. The NDP ended its deal propping up the minority Liberal government on confidence votes, raising the chance of an early election.
  • Justin Trudeau's Liberals can remain in power by seeking support on a case-by-case basis with either the NDP or the Bloc Quebecois. Both those leaders say they can be persuaded on specific votes if their priorities are met, and have been cool to Conservative demands for an immediate election.
  • Analysts say the reality is the NDP had to end the deal well before the election due next fall to avoid being sunk alongside Liberals far behind Conservatives in the polls. That suggests Trudeau could hang on into early next year -- or perhaps just force an election himself.
  • One critical confidence vote may come after the fall fiscal update; while it’s unlike a full budget it may contain measures that require a vote. Trudeau has signaled he will continue with deficit spending.
  • Trudeau last Monday named Mark Carney as head of a group to study economic growth and productivity. He has also been touted as a potential future leadership candidate or finance minister.
  • Sample headlines: Justin Trudeau says he’s staying, but his government acts like time is almost up (Globe and Mail); The Tories need to add some starch to their blue-collar pitch (Globe); Justin Trudeau’s flock is abandoning its shepherd (Globe).