MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, January 10

MNI BRIEF: China To Adopt Very Proactive Fiscal Policy-Offical

CANADA LIBERAL LEADERHIP VOTE TO REPLACE TRUDEAU SET FOR MAR 9

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Suspends Bonds Trades As Yields Drop

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY14.8 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1891 Fri; -2.36% Y/Y

MNI: CANADIAN NOV BUILDING PERMITS -5.9% MOM

US DEC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.086%

MNI: US DEC NONFARM PAYROLLS +256K; PRIVATE +223K, GOVT +33K

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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STIR: $-Bloc Markets Sharply Softer Over Past Month Outside The US

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

In the $-bloc, rate expectations through July 2025 have softened significantly over the past month, with the exception of the US, where expectations remained largely unchanged. Over the period, New Zealand saw a decline of 36bps, Australia softened by 30bps, and Canada eased by 19bps. 

  • Looking ahead, the US calendar today will see key employment data for December. Nonfarm payrolls growth is seen at circa 160k in December as some recent distortions from hurricanes and strikes are in the rear-view mirror, and with a relatively narrow range to analyst estimates. The unemployment rate is broadly seen holding at 4.2%, although at an unrounded 4.246% in November it wouldn’t surprise if it rounded to 4.3%. A ‘high’ of 4.3% would still be notable for a fresh recent high.
  • Looking ahead to December 2025, the projected official rates and cumulative easing across the $-bloc are as follows: US (FOMC): 3.90%, -44bps; Canada (BOC): 2.66%, -60bps; Australia (RBA): 3.57%, -75bps; and New Zealand (RBNZ): 2.98%, -127bps.

  

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In the $-bloc, rate expectations through July 2025 have softened significantly over the past month, with the exception of the US, where expectations remained largely unchanged. Over the period, New Zealand saw a decline of 36bps, Australia softened by 30bps, and Canada eased by 19bps. 

  • Looking ahead, the US calendar today will see key employment data for December. Nonfarm payrolls growth is seen at circa 160k in December as some recent distortions from hurricanes and strikes are in the rear-view mirror, and with a relatively narrow range to analyst estimates. The unemployment rate is broadly seen holding at 4.2%, although at an unrounded 4.246% in November it wouldn’t surprise if it rounded to 4.3%. A ‘high’ of 4.3% would still be notable for a fresh recent high.
  • Looking ahead to December 2025, the projected official rates and cumulative easing across the $-bloc are as follows: US (FOMC): 3.90%, -44bps; Canada (BOC): 2.66%, -60bps; Australia (RBA): 3.57%, -75bps; and New Zealand (RBNZ): 2.98%, -127bps.

  

Keep reading...Show less