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Dots Hawkish, But More On FOMC Need To Be Convinced

FED

A few takeaways going through the release:

  • The first standout of course is the dots, where the medians are hawkish vs consensus going into the FOMC but split on each year if I'm reading it correctly (split 9 vs 9 on a hike in 2022, 9 above 1.00% and 9 below making a 1.00% median in 2023, split between 1.625 and 1.875 to make 1.75% in 2024).
  • So hawkish on the median, but still plenty on the FOMC that need to be convinced of a more hawkish path.
  • Obvs the tapering language was changed; expect Powell to be asked repeatedly how soon is "soon".
  • In the Econ projections, core PCE upgrades maybe a little higher than expectations (2022 to 2.3 from 2.1, 2023 to 2.2 from 2.1 suggesting lingering pressures). GDP and employment more or less as expected.
  • The ON RRP counterparty limits raise had been seen possible, so not a huge surprise.
  • Over to Powell shortly.
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