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Driven by the Texas LNG export terminal fire

GILTS
  • The gilt curve has seen a largely parallel shift with yields around 1.7bp higher up to 10-years, with some flattening thereafter with 10s30s 1.0bp flatter on the day.
  • The main driver has been the Texas LNG export terminal fire, which accounts for 16% of US exports (and US exports account for around 50% of UK imported gas). The fire means the terminal is likely to be closed for at least three weeks.
  • With the UK and Europe still looking to top up their storage facilities ahead of the winter, UK natgas prices are up over 16% on the day (and had peaked earlier up close to 40% on the day).
  • This has led to a reassessment of the SONIA strip, which is underperforming both Euribor and Eurodollar futures this morning.
  • Other than politics, there is little on the UK-specific calendar for the remainder of the week with the ECB decision likely to be the biggest driver of UK markets today. However, next week will be very busy with the BOE decision due Thursday next week and activity data for April due Monday, labour market due Tuesday and retail sales data due Friday next week.
  • 2y yields up 2.0bp today at 1.786%, 5y yields up 2.1bp at 1.896%, 10y yields up 2.0bp at 2.265% and 30y yields up 1.0bp at 2.466%.
  • 2s10s unch today at 47.9bp while 10s30s are down -1.0bp at 20.1bp.
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