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Drop in Jobs Opening JOLTS Markets

US TSYS
  • Active session Tuesday as Tsy futures gapped higher after lower than expected JOLTS Job Openings (8.733M vs. 9.3M est, 9.350M prior down-revised from 9.553M) - the biggest monthly drop since May 2023 and marks the lowest level of job openings since March 2021, with the ratio of openings/unemployed dropping to 1.34, the lowest since Aug 2021.
  • Underlying futures rallied back to early September levels following lower than expected JOLTS data while markets reprice 2024 rate cut projections: December steady at -.3bp at 5.333%, January 2024 cumulative -3.8bp at 5.298%, March 2024 chance of rate cut climbs to -60.0% (vs. -55.2% this morning) with cumulative at -18.8bp at 5.148%, May 2024 pricing in -72.4% (-71.2% this morning) with cumulative -36.9bp at 4.967%. Fed terminal at 5.33% in Feb'24.
  • Additional data saw less of a reaction: ISM Services Index higher than est (52.7 vs. 52.3, 51.8 prior), Prices Paid (58.3 vs. 58.0 est, 58.6 prior), Employment lower (50.7 vs. 51.4 est, 50.2 prior), New Orders higher (55.5 vs. 54.9 est, 55.5 prior). Tsy futures pared support briefly after in-line S&P Global US Services PMI (50.8 vs. 50.8 est, 50.8 prior); S&P Global US Composite PMI (50.7 vs. 50.7 est, 50.7 prior).
  • Wednesday Data Calendar: ADP, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Cost. Main focus still on Friday's employment data for November.

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