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ECB Cut Pricing Moderates A Touch

STIR

The degree of cuts priced into ECB-dated OIS has moderated a touch vs pre-decision levels, as the ECB avoid major changes to their guidance absent the addition of the paragraph on PEPP reinvestments.

  • The core and headline inflation forecasts for 2024 were revised lower (headline to 2.7% Y/Y vs 3.2% prior, core to 2.7% Y/Y vs 2.9% prior), generally in line with expectations given the soft inflation prints in recent months. Though we note the acknowledgement of unit labour costs as a primary driver for the still-elevated domestic price pressures.
  • That leaves 154bps of cumulative rate cuts priced through 2024 (vs 157bps prior to the decision).
  • Focus now turns to the press conference at 1345GMT.
Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Dec-233.9050.0
Jan-243.873-3.2
Mar-243.710-19.5
Apr-243.476-42.9
Jun-243.161-74.4
Jul-242.908-99.7
Sep-242.697-120.8
Oct-242.527-137.8
Dec-242.365-154.0
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