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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessECB Cut Pricing Moderates A Touch
The degree of cuts priced into ECB-dated OIS has moderated a touch vs pre-decision levels, as the ECB avoid major changes to their guidance absent the addition of the paragraph on PEPP reinvestments.
- The core and headline inflation forecasts for 2024 were revised lower (headline to 2.7% Y/Y vs 3.2% prior, core to 2.7% Y/Y vs 2.9% prior), generally in line with expectations given the soft inflation prints in recent months. Though we note the acknowledgement of unit labour costs as a primary driver for the still-elevated domestic price pressures.
- That leaves 154bps of cumulative rate cuts priced through 2024 (vs 157bps prior to the decision).
- Focus now turns to the press conference at 1345GMT.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Dec-23 | 3.905 | 0.0 |
Jan-24 | 3.873 | -3.2 |
Mar-24 | 3.710 | -19.5 |
Apr-24 | 3.476 | -42.9 |
Jun-24 | 3.161 | -74.4 |
Jul-24 | 2.908 | -99.7 |
Sep-24 | 2.697 | -120.8 |
Oct-24 | 2.527 | -137.8 |
Dec-24 | 2.365 | -154.0 |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.