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ECB Hike Pricing Ticks Higher Pre-Meeting, BoE Peak Pulls Back

STIR

ECB terminal rate pricing rose a couple of basis points Wednesday ahead of Thursday's monetary policy decision, while implied BoE hikes pulled back after Tuesday's sharp rise.

  • ECB terminal depo Rate pricing +2.3bp to 3.83% (58bp of further hikes left in the cycle). Despite few catalysts of note in Wednesday's session, peak hike pricing ticked higher for the 2nd straight day. A 25bp hike tomorrow is basically a foregone conclusion, at 96% priced.
  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing -8.2bp to 5.74% (126bp of further hikes left in the cycle). A dip in peak hike pricing is understandable after a full 25bp hike was added to the rate path Tuesday following strong labor market data. The implied peak is still 21bp higher than it opened the week and 32bp vs the start of June.

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