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ECB's Kazaks Does Not Object To June Cut

STIR

Euribor futures are flat to +3.5 through the blues, with Spanish March flash inflation data headlining today's Eurozone calendar (0800GMT/0900CET). Our Eurozone inflation preview is here).

  • Overnight news flow centred on speculation r.e. the BoJ/Yen, but feedthrough into Euribor futures was limited.
  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price 92bps of cuts through the remainder of '24, with 24bps priced through the end of the June meeting.
  • In an interview with the MNI Policy Team, former ECB Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi noted that analyst consensus for 75bps of cuts in '24 is probably right, but he sees a lower probability re: lower rates next year (see here).
  • This morning, Latvian CB Governor Kazaks did not object to market pricing for a June rate cut. This is another instance of one of the traditional hawks moving toward the market/GC base case, akin to Muller yesterday.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Apr-243.888-1.8
Jun-243.669-23.7
Jul-243.515-39.1
Sep-243.309-59.7
Oct-243.165-74.1
Dec-242.991-91.5
Jan-252.868-103.8
Mar-252.724-118.2
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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