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Economy Set For 2023 Contraction: Economy Ministry

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)
  • The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs October economic outlook report highlights weakened growth expectations into year-end as inflation soars and gas shortage risks climb.
  • The government forecasts anticipate 2022 growth at 1.4%, slumping to a 0.4% contraction in 2023. Slowing demand will see declines in industry and retail.
  • CPI is projected to average at 8.0% across 2022, before weakening marginally to 7.0% in 2023. This follows the 71-year high of 10.0% in September as fuel and transport support expired.
  • The German economy should nevertheless be able to bear the brunt of any recession. Labour market outlooks remain stable and employees are expected to remain employed through the recession and a substantial increase in insolvency rates is not anticipated.
  • Although the ECB's tightening cycle will continue to weigh on growth, stemming German inflation persists as the overarching concern for now.
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