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EGB/Gilt - Gilt outperforms

BONDS
  • EGBs and have stayed within this morning ranges this afternoon.
  • Bund has nonetheless traded in another 208 ticks range.
  • Although futures have mostly retraced lower this afternoon, they have bounced after the US final Michigan 5-10yr inflation expectation was revised lower.
  • Notable drop in both 1yr and 5-10y inflation expectations in this survey - both very much unexpected:
  • 1yr down to 5.3% from 5.4%
  • 5-10y down to 3.1% from 3.3%
  • This is the survey that Powell referenced at the Fed's last rate decision - so carries extra weight this month, hence spike higher across equity markets and downside pressure on yields.
  • Peripherals are wider, besides Greece that sits close to flat.
  • Gilt outperforms Germany, bringing the Gilt/Bund spread 2.9bps tighter.
  • Looking ahead, Fed Daly will be speaking twice, on a Fox interview, and at Shadow Open Market Conference.
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