EGB Supply

Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria and Germany have all announced issuance operations for the remainder of the week ahead while the EFSF and the EU have already come to the market. We also potentially foresee further syndication announcements from Ireland and/or Spain. This leaves estimated gross issuance for the week at E56.5bln, up from E28.9bln this week. Note that Spain will reportedly hold an investor call today.

• Belgium has announced a mandate for a new 10-year Oct-34 OLO to be launched in the near future (MNI expect a transaction today and we look for the top half of a E5-7bln size range – or potentially even a little larger). Note the 29 January auction has been cancelled.
• Italy has also released a mandate for its first dual-tranche BTP syndication since April 2021 (where E7bln of a 7-year BTP was sold alongside E5bln of a 50-year BTP). The MEF has confirmed that on offer will again be a new 7-year BTP (MNI looks for E7bln) alongside E5bln WNG of the 30-year 4.50% Oct-53 BTP (ISIN: IT0005534141). MNI was surprised at the dual-tranche nature of the syndication but we had pencilled in either a 15-year or 30-year new BTP (with the other to be launched via syndication in February). We expect the transaction to take place today.
• Also this morning, the Netherlands will come to the market with E2.0-2.5bln of the 6-year 2.50% Jan-30 DSL (ISIN: NL0015001DQ7) on offer.
• Austria will look to hold an auction on today with a combined E2.01bln of the 10-year 2.90% Feb-33 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A324S8) on offer alongside the 30-year 3.15% Oct-53 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A33SK7).

EZ240109.pdf