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EGB Supply (3/3)

EUROZONE ISSUANCE
  • Possible syndications:
    • Belgium: We pencil in a second Belgian syndication of 2024 this week (although we do flag the possibility that it could be pushed back to next week given the heavier redemption schedule of the following week). The most likely new issue in our view is probably a new 30-year OLO. The BDA has also noted that it plans for one new medium-term OLO to be launched in the year which could potentially be launched in this window rather than the 30-year OLO. We see an Oct-30 OLO as the most likely maturity (potentially Oct-29). There is a current coupon gap in the OLO curve around this area.
    • Spain: We also expect another syndication from Spain in February – most likely a new 30-year Oct-54 Obli for E5-7bln. This also has the potential for a possible launch this week. The lack of any nominal bonds with a maturity longer than 10-years at the 1 February auction makes us more confident a syndication is imminent.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: This week sees no redemptions and coupons of just E0.4bln. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E32.4bln, up from positive E16.9bln last week.

For the full MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix see the full PDF here.

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