EGB supply for W/C Apr 12, 2021

The EFSF, Netherlands, Italy and Germany are all due to issue bonds this week. We estimate gross nominal issuance of E20.9bln (down from E38.5bln last week). But we note there is still the possibility of Ireland, Finland or Slovakia holding syndications. The week ahead will see large redemptions totalling E29.3bln.

• The EFSF is likely to hold a syndication today (an RFP has been issued for this week). The EFSF looks to issue E7bln in Q2, so we could see as much as E5bln sold this week.
• Tomorrow will see the Netherlands launch the new 15-year via DDA. E4-6bln is on offer (we expect the top of the range). The new DSL will mature in July 2038 with a 0% coupon with initial spread guidance due for release today.
• Italy also holds an auction tomorrow, selling up to E7.75bln of BTPs (a slightly smaller auction size with the 7-year not on offer after this week's syndication). On offer will be the 0% Apr-24 BTP for E3.5-4.0bln, the 1.60% Jun-26 BTP for E1.00-1.75bln and the 0.95% Mar-37 BTP for E1.5-2.0bln.
• Germany will hold a linker auction tomorrow, with the 0.10% Apr-33 ILB on offer for the first time since its launch in February.
• Germany will then return to the market on Wednesday to sell E1.5bln of the 1.25% Aug-48 Bund.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: 15 April is redemption day with E15.2bln of the 0.05% Apr-21 BTP, E6.00bln of the 3.50% Apr-21 RFGB and E8.03bln of the 3.85% Apr-21 OT all due to mature. Coupon payments for the week total E3.8bln (E1.5bln from Germany, E1.2bln from Portugal). With gross nominal issuance of E20.9bln, we look for a flow back to the market of E12.1bln nominal (against net nominal issuance of E15.8bln last week).

For a recap of last week's issuance alongside graphical representations of issuance in the upcoming weeks and detailed tables of coupon and redemption schedules for the year ahead click here.