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Consolidation Mode But Remains Bearish

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Fails To Hold Onto Thursday’s High

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'Big Tech' Bill Goes To Senate

COMMODITIES

Oil Up For Fifth Week On Supply Disruption, Geopolitics

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This week will see issuance from Italy, Germany, Spain and France. MNI estimates gross issuance for this week at E18.4bln, up from last week's E11.5bln.

  • Italy will kick off issuance this morning with on-the-run 5/10-year BTPs alongside a long 7-year CCTeu: E1.5-2.0bln of the 0% Aug-26 BTP, E1.75-2.25bln of the 0.95% Jun-32 BTP and E1.0-1.5bln of the 0.65% Apr-29 CCTeu.
  • Germany will also come to the market today to sell E3bln of the 7-year 0% Nov-28 Bund.
  • Germany will return to the market tomorrow to kick off December issuance with E3bln of the 0% Oct-26 Bobl on offer.
  • Spain will come to the market Thursday with the off-the-run 4-year 2.15% Oct-25 Obli, on-the-run 10-year 0.50% Oct-31 Obli and 0.70% Nov-33 Obli-Ei on offer. E1.5-2.5bln of nominals will be on offer alongside E250-750mln of linkers.
  • France will conclude issuance for the week Thursday and also hold its last auction of 2021 with E3-4bln of off-the-run LT OATs on offer: the 2.50% May-30 OAT, the 4.50% Apr-41 OAT and the 3.25% May-45 OAT.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: There are notable redemptions in Italy (E15.2bln CTZ), Spain (E6.75bln Boni-i) and also Portugal (E1.5bln of a PGB Floater). Together these redemptions total E23.4bln while coupons for the week of E1.9bln are due (E1.6bln Italian). With gross issuance of E19.3bln, we estimate negative net flows of E7.0bln this week (in contrast to net positive flows of E9.5bln last week).

For a calendar of all announced EGB/EU/ESM/EFSF/gilt auctions see the MNI EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar here.