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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: US CPI Crushes European Front End

BONDS

European short-end bonds sold off sharply Friday afternoon, on a higher-than-expected US CPI reading that boosted near-term global rate hike expectations.

  • The UK and German curves bear flattened: markets are now pricing in 160bp in ECB hikes the rest of the year (+11bp on the session) and 179bp from the BoE (+10bp).
  • UK 2Y yields now have a 2-handle for the first time since 2008, while Schatz neared 1%.
  • Periphery spreads continued to sell off post-ECB, 10 BTP reaching a fresh post-May 2018 wide.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany:

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 13.6bps at 0.971%, 5-Yr is up 13.4bps at 1.329%, 10-Yr is up 8.6bps at 1.516%, and 30-Yr is up 3.3bps at 1.659%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 19.1bps at 2.046%, 5-Yr is up 18.1bps at 2.144%, 10-Yr is up 12.4bps at 2.447%, and 30-Yr is up 7.9bps at 2.57%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 7.4bps at 224.7bps / Greek up 18.8bps at 288.1bps
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