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Elections On May 14, Opposition Well In The Lead

THAILAND
EM BulletHomepagePolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletEmerging Markets News

Thailand’s 52 million voters will go to the polls on Sunday May 14 after the House of Representatives was dissolved on Monday. The last election was held on 24 March 2019. Since mid-2021, there has been growing support for the main opposition Pheu Thai Party. In the latest Nida poll released on Sunday and reported in the Bangkok Post, it received the support of 49.75% of respondents and in second was the progressive Move Forward with 17.4%, while the incumbent PPRP had only just over 2%.

  • The leader of Pheu Thai, Ms Paetongtarn, had 38.2% support as preferred PM followed by Mr Limjaroenrat from Move Forward on 15.75%. Incumbent PM Gen Prayut received 15.65%. Ms Paetongtarn is the youngest daughter of former PM Thaksin, who was ousted in the 2006 coup.
  • The ruling PPRP split at the end of 2022 because of disagreements over interactions with the opposition.
  • There have been growing calls this year for volunteers to supervise the election and for the media to report unofficial results in real time, as the Election Commission has decided not to. Last year a government minister warned that protesting could result in elections being cancelled.
  • Parties have to present a list of possible PM candidates ahead of the election. Following the election there will be a joint sitting of parliament to choose the next PM. This will include the 250-seat military-appointed senate and so they are likely to have a considerable say in who is the next PM. The House of Representatives has 500 seats and so a candidate needs 376 votes to be approved.
  • All candidates need to be registered by April 7.
  • The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates that the election could insert as much as THB120bn (0.7% of 2022 GDP) to the economy as competition is likely to be intense, according to the Bangkok Post.
  • The economy is expected to grow 3-3.5% in 2023 helped by returning tourists but stability pre- and post-election will be important for Thailand’s economic outlook.
Thai election opinion poll % (Nida)

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Thailand’s 52 million voters will go to the polls on Sunday May 14 after the House of Representatives was dissolved on Monday. The last election was held on 24 March 2019. Since mid-2021, there has been growing support for the main opposition Pheu Thai Party. In the latest Nida poll released on Sunday and reported in the Bangkok Post, it received the support of 49.75% of respondents and in second was the progressive Move Forward with 17.4%, while the incumbent PPRP had only just over 2%.

  • The leader of Pheu Thai, Ms Paetongtarn, had 38.2% support as preferred PM followed by Mr Limjaroenrat from Move Forward on 15.75%. Incumbent PM Gen Prayut received 15.65%. Ms Paetongtarn is the youngest daughter of former PM Thaksin, who was ousted in the 2006 coup.
  • The ruling PPRP split at the end of 2022 because of disagreements over interactions with the opposition.
  • There have been growing calls this year for volunteers to supervise the election and for the media to report unofficial results in real time, as the Election Commission has decided not to. Last year a government minister warned that protesting could result in elections being cancelled.
  • Parties have to present a list of possible PM candidates ahead of the election. Following the election there will be a joint sitting of parliament to choose the next PM. This will include the 250-seat military-appointed senate and so they are likely to have a considerable say in who is the next PM. The House of Representatives has 500 seats and so a candidate needs 376 votes to be approved.
  • All candidates need to be registered by April 7.
  • The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates that the election could insert as much as THB120bn (0.7% of 2022 GDP) to the economy as competition is likely to be intense, according to the Bangkok Post.
  • The economy is expected to grow 3-3.5% in 2023 helped by returning tourists but stability pre- and post-election will be important for Thailand’s economic outlook.
Thai election opinion poll % (Nida)

Keep reading...Show less