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EMERGING MARKETS: Central bank rate decisions in EMEA next week

EMERGING MARKETS
  • July 23: The NBH is expected to act in-line with its hawkish messaging and keep rates unchanged at 7%. Despite headline inflation coming in below expectations in June, Deputy Governor Virag said the central bank will not overreact to a single positive data-point. Among sell-side, most analysts are expecting rates to be held steady at this juncture, though risks of a 25bp cut acknowledged are by most.
  • July 23: The CBRT is widely expected to keep its one-week repo rate unchanged at 50%, presumably having reached the peak of its hiking cycle back in March. Nevertheless, the Bank have made further adjustments to its macroprudential toolkit in order to manage liquidity and supplement its rate pauses. Among sell-side, some analysts see rate cuts commencing by year-end.
  • July 26: The CBR is expected to deliver a large rate hike of 200bps after price growth in Russia accelerated for the sixth straight month. The central bank has held the benchmark at 16% since December, but Governor Nabiullina has warned that a “significant” rate hike will be needed if inflationary pressures don’t start to fade.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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