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End-Of-Year Economic Activity Estimates Are “Disconcerting”

MEXICO

Banxico Deputy Governor Jonathan heath via twitter:

  • INEGI released its estimates of economic activity for November and December through its Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE). The news is somewhat disconcerting.
    • If the IOAE estimates for the last two months of the year are correct and there are no revisions in the previous months, we can expect a fall of -0.5% in the IV quarter compared to the previous one.
    • If the fourth quarter decreases -0.5% and there are no revisions in the previous quarters, we can anticipate a 5.1% GDP growth rate for 2021. If we do the calculation using the IGAE for the 12 months, economic activity would grow 4.8% in 2021.
  • For reference, the next GDP data is scheduled for release on January 31.
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