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Energy Price Intervention Sees CPI Decelerate Sharply

CZECHIA
MNI (London)

CZECH OCT CPI -1.4% M/M (FCST +0.9%); SEP +0.8% M/M
CZECH OCT CPI +15.1% Y/Y (FCST +17.9%); SEP +18.0% Y/Y

  • Czech CPI decelerated in October as prices contracted by -1.4% m/m and annualised inflation slowed by 2.9pp to +15.1% y/y. This is a marked deviation from consensus expectations of +0.9% m/m and +17.9% y/y.
  • On the month, food prices and transport fuels accelerated sharply (+3.0% m/m and +4.9% m/m).
  • State household support for energy costs largely underpinned the decrease in price pressures. Electricity prices fell by 38.2% y/y in October as a result, in stark contrast to +37.8% in September.
  • This translated into a lower total goods inflation of +16.0% y/y, down from 20.7% y/y in September.
  • Core CPI saw some relief in October. CPI ex. domestic heating and lighting oils, automotive fuel slowed to +14.8% y/y from +17.9% in September, implying that the deceleration in goods prices is applying additional downward pressure to the headline print.
  • The lower-than-expected print will view of the majority that already-instituted tightening will be sufficient to contain prices going forward, leaving Holub and Mora as the only outstanding hawks on the board. The next CNB decision is due December 21st.

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CZECH OCT CPI -1.4% M/M (FCST +0.9%); SEP +0.8% M/M
CZECH OCT CPI +15.1% Y/Y (FCST +17.9%); SEP +18.0% Y/Y

  • Czech CPI decelerated in October as prices contracted by -1.4% m/m and annualised inflation slowed by 2.9pp to +15.1% y/y. This is a marked deviation from consensus expectations of +0.9% m/m and +17.9% y/y.
  • On the month, food prices and transport fuels accelerated sharply (+3.0% m/m and +4.9% m/m).
  • State household support for energy costs largely underpinned the decrease in price pressures. Electricity prices fell by 38.2% y/y in October as a result, in stark contrast to +37.8% in September.
  • This translated into a lower total goods inflation of +16.0% y/y, down from 20.7% y/y in September.
  • Core CPI saw some relief in October. CPI ex. domestic heating and lighting oils, automotive fuel slowed to +14.8% y/y from +17.9% in September, implying that the deceleration in goods prices is applying additional downward pressure to the headline print.
  • The lower-than-expected print will view of the majority that already-instituted tightening will be sufficient to contain prices going forward, leaving Holub and Mora as the only outstanding hawks on the board. The next CNB decision is due December 21st.