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€IG cash pointed to a strong finish this week, Sartorius (on earnings) & Tapestry among the best performers. Today's rally adds to a -4/-6bp move WTD for €IG/HY cash. iTraxx closed -2.2/-14.2 over the week lagging headline cash - a theme we've seen this yr & could be a tailwind for basis to move higher again.
Supply expectations remain muted (rolling earnings blackouts continue) & are ~unch from this week at ~€18b & (for $IG) $20-$25b. We've seen noticeable slowdown in cash compression across both € & $ - there has been a pick up in supply in both regions ($HY saw its busiest day in 3-months with $3.5b on Thursday) & that as the driver is echoed in risk sentiment that's otherwise looked to have held up - $ & €IG still managed to compress 1-2bps & some stronger compression in BB/B spreads - $CCC only one wider WTD & continuing its YTD underperformance.
€IG eqv's finished +0.6% today - broad based gains led by LVMH (+12.9%) & peers. Utilities only sector in the red after RWE (-6%) issued weak FY24 earnings guidance on falling energy prices in Euro wholesale markets - its dragged on index heavyweights Engie & Enel as well. The equity basket ends the week over 2% higher and closer to its early Jan highs - reversing some of the decoupling in spreads vs. equities we commented on last week. Similar reversal up in our $IG basket & as we noted FY24 EPS growth (for major equity indices) are unch to higher since earnings began. That'll optimism will be tested again next week with a heavier earnings schedule.
Big week ahead for macro with Fed & BOE meetings - split in front-end pricing between the two has driven credit yield divergence. £ spreads playing catch up this week though still lags $/€ YTD moves. Treasury refunding announcement last time caused some rates vol & it begins with borrowing estimates on Monday before the refunding announcement itself on Wednesday. Its labour market heavy in data for US - Fed will have ADP employment for Jan & ECI for Q4 in hand - our Economist flags ECI is cleanest measure for wages & has been directly referenced by Powell - though it lags (in timeliness) the AHE from payrolls that we get post-Fed on Friday.
Focus in Euro on rolling Jan inflation (Tue-Thur) but we also get first glance at Q4 GDP & in UK its BOE meeting focused including the voter breakdown, statement, minutes & new forecasts from MPR.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.