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Weaker In A Range

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Ending The Week On A Soft Note

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Bearish Risk Growing

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EU-UK

BBC Europe Editor Katya Adler tweets a long Brexit thread:

  • Why, you might ask, if the EU priority in negotiations was to protect the single market, is Brussels allowing issue of fish to endanger the whole deal? EU always knew it needed to compromise on fish so che pasa?
  • Thing is, level playing field is worth a lot more in monetary and political terms to EU BUT it sounds quite abstract to voters. Fishermen and women losing their jobs, industries dwindling .. that would be very visible very quickly - this elevates importance of fishing rights
  • In coastal countries where governments fear public backlash if it's perceived they've sacrificed national fishing communities for a deal with U.K.
  • A further complication is that one EU coastal nation doesn't see why it has to lose out more than another in this deal. Spaniards and Dutch fish more off Cornwall, north of Scotland. France, in Channel. So there are internal EU tensions, not only with U.K.
  • Although majority of EU members are not coastal nations, and although EVERYONE in EU would love to finally put this deal to bed (for political/financial reasons but also because they're plain fed up with the process) the EU as a whole won't try to force member states to sign if unhappy.
  • Remember the signing of the Withdrawal Agreement? It got held up last minute because Spain was unhappy with wording pertaining to Gibraltar. Other EU countries were hugely irritated with Madrid but it was accepted no one would sign till everyone was happy to sign
  • Michel Barnier spoke to EU coastal countries today to try to find compromise position but..Because of the nothing-is-agreed-until-everything-is-agreed mantra of negotiations, the EU mood this afternoon is less optimistic about prospect of imminent breakthrough than 2 days ago
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-0981 | tom.lake@marketnews.com