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EUR Market Wrap

CREDIT UPDATE


  • Bunds are trading 5-8bps cheaper after dovish weekend comments from the BdF's Villeroy prompted re-pricing of ECB cut expectations with markets now pricing in seven cuts for the year and 19bp/31bp in April/Jun. The morning bid was bolstered by a RTRS interview piece with GovCo member Centeno, who noted that “the Bank should start bringing down interest rates sooner rather than later”.
  • Main/XO sitting +1bp/+5bp with Main back above year-end levels and XO back at the 320 level. FICM showing €IG/€HY at -1bp/+4bp though swap spreads imply wider wider moves vs. govies. We see seven EUR deals in the market (incl. one hybrid and three covereds) along with seven new mandates (incl two HY and two covereds).
  • SXXP is trading flat with large caps and FTSE stocks outperforming slightly while FTSE MIB and Value stocks underperform. Sectorally, we see Telecoms and Autos as the biggest underperformers, both -0.8%, while Energy stocks are +1.3% after Brent and WTI touched highest levels since November.
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