CORRECTED-MNI: China H2 Steel Outlook Subdued

MNI BRIEF: Gradual, but Decisive ECB Cuts Needed –Giorgetti

MNI BRIEF: German Insolvencies Slowed In June, Outlook Uncertain - IWH

MNI BOK WATCH: Slowing Inflation Puts Q4 Cut In Sight

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Tues; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS TUES

US NFIB JUN SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 91.5

Asia Sov Curves Bull-Steepen, Indon To Reduce Bond Issuance

MNI: UK BRC JUN BY VALUE SHOP SALES LFL -0.5% YY, TOTAL -0.2% YY

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

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EUR Market Wrap

CREDIT PRE-MARKET
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  • 2y/10y bunds ended -3bp/-4bp with our DM team flagging German & Spanish CPI data as supporting core global FI markets with downticks in benchmark crude oil and TTF prices also helping those moves.
  • Main/XO closed -1bp/-3bp while €IG/€HY finished up flat/+2bp with longer-dated €IG spreads outperforming against a day of relatively low supply with just three issuers coming to market (Barclays, Pernod Ricard, Roche). Energy underperformed at +0.4bp, now tied with Utilities as the best performer WoW at -2.6bp.
  • SXXP closed flat with Basic Resources, Retail and Tech the biggest movers at +1.4%, -1.1% and -1%. €IG movers in the European session included Philips +29%, SES -10%, Albemarle +7%, AIA Group +6% and Deutsche Bank -8%.
  • Asian equities are broadly higher but Hong Kong and China equities are lower, with Hong Kong equities continuing their relative outperformance after China announced measures to support the HK market. Stoxx 50 futures are flat. Up today:


    GMT/Local Impact Country Event
    0530/0730 *** FR GDP (p)
    0530/0730 ** FR Consumer Spending
    0600/0800 ** DE Retail Sales
    0600/0800 ** DE Import/Export Prices
    0645/0845 *** FR HICP (p)
    0645/0845 ** FR PPI
    0700/0900 *** ES GDP (p)
    0700/0900 ** CH KOF Economic Barometer
    0755/0955 ** DE Unemployment
    0800/1000 *** IT GDP (p)
    0800/1000 *** DE GDP (p)
    0830/0930 ** UK BOE M4
    0830/0930 ** UK BOE Lending to Individuals
    0900/1100 *** EU HICP (p)
    0900/1100 *** EU EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Q/Q
    0900/1100 *** EU EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Y/Y
    0900/1100 *** IT HICP (p)
    0900/1000 ** UK Gilt Outright Auction Result
    1100/1200 UK Asset Purchase Facility Quarterly Report 2024 Q1
    1230/0830 *** US Employment Cost Index
    1230/0830 *** CA Gross Domestic Product by Industry
    1255/0855 ** US Redbook Retail Sales Index
    1300/0900 ** US S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
    1300/0900 ** US FHFA Home Price Index
    1300/0900 ** US FHFA Home Price Index
    1345/0945 *** US MNI Chicago PMI
    1400/1000 *** US Conference Board Consumer Confidence
    1400/1000 ** US housing vacancies
    1430/1030 ** US Dallas Fed Services Survey
    1530/1130 * US US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
    2245/1045 *** NZ Quarterly Labor market data
    2300/0900 ** AU IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
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Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • 2y/10y bunds ended -3bp/-4bp with our DM team flagging German & Spanish CPI data as supporting core global FI markets with downticks in benchmark crude oil and TTF prices also helping those moves.
  • Main/XO closed -1bp/-3bp while €IG/€HY finished up flat/+2bp with longer-dated €IG spreads outperforming against a day of relatively low supply with just three issuers coming to market (Barclays, Pernod Ricard, Roche). Energy underperformed at +0.4bp, now tied with Utilities as the best performer WoW at -2.6bp.
  • SXXP closed flat with Basic Resources, Retail and Tech the biggest movers at +1.4%, -1.1% and -1%. €IG movers in the European session included Philips +29%, SES -10%, Albemarle +7%, AIA Group +6% and Deutsche Bank -8%.
  • Asian equities are broadly higher but Hong Kong and China equities are lower, with Hong Kong equities continuing their relative outperformance after China announced measures to support the HK market. Stoxx 50 futures are flat. Up today:


    GMT/Local Impact Country Event
    0530/0730 *** FR GDP (p)
    0530/0730 ** FR Consumer Spending
    0600/0800 ** DE Retail Sales
    0600/0800 ** DE Import/Export Prices
    0645/0845 *** FR HICP (p)
    0645/0845 ** FR PPI
    0700/0900 *** ES GDP (p)
    0700/0900 ** CH KOF Economic Barometer
    0755/0955 ** DE Unemployment
    0800/1000 *** IT GDP (p)
    0800/1000 *** DE GDP (p)
    0830/0930 ** UK BOE M4
    0830/0930 ** UK BOE Lending to Individuals
    0900/1100 *** EU HICP (p)
    0900/1100 *** EU EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Q/Q
    0900/1100 *** EU EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Y/Y
    0900/1100 *** IT HICP (p)
    0900/1000 ** UK Gilt Outright Auction Result
    1100/1200 UK Asset Purchase Facility Quarterly Report 2024 Q1
    1230/0830 *** US Employment Cost Index
    1230/0830 *** CA Gross Domestic Product by Industry
    1255/0855 ** US Redbook Retail Sales Index
    1300/0900 ** US S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
    1300/0900 ** US FHFA Home Price Index
    1300/0900 ** US FHFA Home Price Index
    1345/0945 *** US MNI Chicago PMI
    1400/1000 *** US Conference Board Consumer Confidence
    1400/1000 ** US housing vacancies
    1430/1030 ** US Dallas Fed Services Survey
    1530/1130 * US US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
    2245/1045 *** NZ Quarterly Labor market data
    2300/0900 ** AU IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)