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EUR/USD Enjoys Some Respite but Recovery Efforts Laboured

EUR
MNI (London)
  • EUR/USD broke under $1.1800 in early NY Thursday but was able to recover back above through the 1400GMT NY cut (traders aware that E1.56bln of EUR puts rolled off at $1.1800). Rate touched $1.1812 before fresh sales emerged to press rate to an eventual low of $1.1762.
  • Risk aversion remained the key driver allowing the USD to make further gains vs most G-10 (apart from GBP) with USD/JPY breaking back above Y109.00.
  • Recovery in GBP saw EUR/GBP press lower which added further weight.
  • EUR/JPY demand into the Tokyo fix lifted EUR/USD off its Asia opening low of $1.1764 to $1.1787, holding firm into Europe.
  • Germany Ifo at 0900GMT, focus on expectations, median 95 vs previous 94.2. Medians for Current Assessment 91.3, Business Climate 93.2.
  • US Advance Goods Trade Balance, Pers.Income/spending, PCE 1230GMT, Univ.of Mich 1400GMT. (Europe changes clocks this weekend)
  • EUR/USD probed below its 1.0% 10-dma envelope Thursday but has edged back within this morning (current level $1.1757). Line not support in itself but rate tends not to like trading outside for long.
  • Support $1.1762, a break to expose $1.1752/41(Fibonacci projections), with a move through $1.1730 suggested to accelerate easing toward stronger support interest at $1.1711/1.1695. Resistance seen into $1.1810/20, $1.1850, $1.1875/80.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD maintains a weaker tone and extended this week's bear leg again yesterday. The pair has cleared the 1.1800 handle and attention turns to 1.1752 next, a Fibonacci projection. This week's move lower has also resulted in a break of the 200-day MA and confirmed a resumption of this year's downtrend. On the upside, firm resistance is at 1.1947, the Mar 22 high. Initial resistance though is at 1.1853.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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