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(H2) Consolidation Mode


Kiwi Holds Steady Amid Omicron Outbreak


(H2) Approaching The Key Bear Trigger


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MNI (London)
  • EUR/USD recovery off the Mar31 low of $1.1704 extended further Wednesday, the rate eventually able to move above $1.1900 before stalling at $1.1915 ahead of the 1600BST fix.
  • Rate eased through the NY afternoon, met support at $1.1861, closed the day at $1.1872.
  • FOMC Minutes saw little reaction: Federal Reserve officials became more upbeat about the economy's prospects in the minutes of last month's meeting, while showing no hint of taking their foot off the monetary accelerator amid vaccine progress and more fiscal relief.
  • Asia saw consolidation around $1.1870 in early trade, eased to retest the $1.1861 level but again met decent support. Rate edged back above $1.1870, posted a fresh intraday high of $1.1875 into Europe.
  • Support remains at $1.1861, whilst holds above seen keeping upside in view, a break to weaken current recovery tone.
  • Traders note that E1.5bln of expiries roll off at today's NY cut, E1.36bln of EUR puts. Larger interest above current market, E1.7bln rolling off between $1.1885/95, E2.9bln of EUR puts between $1.1900/10.
  • Support $1.1860, $1.1834($1.1704-1.1915), $1.1810/00 ahead of $1.1785(61.8%)
  • Resistance $1.1900-15, $1.1923(76.4% $1.1990-1.1704), a break to open a move toward $1.1950(38.2% $1.2349-1.1704, 2021 range).
  • Germany Factory Orders 0600GMT, EZ PPI 0900GMT. ECB Minutes 1130GMT.
  • US Weekly Jobless Claims 1230GMT. Fed Bullard 1500GMT, most focus on Fed Powell speaking at an IMF event at 1600GMT.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD traded higher yesterday and briefly above the 1.0% 10-dma envelope, today at 1.1904, before retracing. Recent gains have resulted in price moving into a bear channel range once again, drawn off this year's Jan 6 high and above the 20-day EMA. Gains are considered corrective though with the next firm resistance at 1.1941, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger rally. Initial support is 1.1795.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 |
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