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FOREX: EURCHF Edging Towards 0.9500, Highest Since Late September

FOREX
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  • While the broad dollar weakness has supported most G10 currencies on Friday, the stronger-than-expected German PMIs have prompted some outperformance for the single currency. This has resulted in EURUSD extending its relief rally back above 1.0500, also allowing EURJPY to recover around 140 points from the post BOJ lows, back above 163.00.
  • Euro resilience this week has been notable amid the unknown timeline or magnitude of tariffs and some moderating language from Trump at the margin. EURGBP is holding on to the bulk of this year’s rally, and notably EURCHF has extended to near four-month highs for the cross, now approaching a cluster of daily highs around the 0.95 handle.
  • A break could bolster a developing bullish theme, which has seen EURCHF extend its recent recovery to ~3% from the double bottom situated at 0.9210. Above here, the August 15 highs are the next target at 0.9581, before a Fibonacci retracement level at 0.9655.
  • CHF underperformance remains bolstered by the SNB’s easing profile and President Schlegel continuing to not rule out the use of negative rates. Schlegel’s rhetoric on Switzerland's exposure to potential tariffs also stood out on Thursday, as another potential headwind for the local currency.
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  • While the broad dollar weakness has supported most G10 currencies on Friday, the stronger-than-expected German PMIs have prompted some outperformance for the single currency. This has resulted in EURUSD extending its relief rally back above 1.0500, also allowing EURJPY to recover around 140 points from the post BOJ lows, back above 163.00.
  • Euro resilience this week has been notable amid the unknown timeline or magnitude of tariffs and some moderating language from Trump at the margin. EURGBP is holding on to the bulk of this year’s rally, and notably EURCHF has extended to near four-month highs for the cross, now approaching a cluster of daily highs around the 0.95 handle.
  • A break could bolster a developing bullish theme, which has seen EURCHF extend its recent recovery to ~3% from the double bottom situated at 0.9210. Above here, the August 15 highs are the next target at 0.9581, before a Fibonacci retracement level at 0.9655.
  • CHF underperformance remains bolstered by the SNB’s easing profile and President Schlegel continuing to not rule out the use of negative rates. Schlegel’s rhetoric on Switzerland's exposure to potential tariffs also stood out on Thursday, as another potential headwind for the local currency.
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