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EURHUF Begins the Week on the Front Foot, Friday’s CPI Data Eyed

HUF
EURHUF has started the week on the front foot, with the cross up 0.15% on the day at around 384.65. Nevertheless, today’s move is tame in comparison to last week when the forint strengthened as much as 2% against the euro following the hawkish NBH rate cut, which demonstrated that the central bank remains sensitive to FX weakness. Overall, the forint sits close to the bottom of the EMEA FX pile so far today (though is outperforming the Polish zloty).
  • For now, the pullback in EURHUF is considered technically corrective with a break of key support at 382.32, the 50-day EMA, needed to highlight a reversal and open 378.59, the Jan 16 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 386.69, the Jan 31 high.
  • Looking ahead, CPI data on Friday is the key risk event in Hungary. As per the median estimate of the Bloomberg survey of analysts, the headline figure likely fell from +5.5% y/y in December to +4.3% in January. With real rates still contractive, pressure from the government on the central bank to cut rates will likely increase. Indeed, Economy Minister Nagy noted today that the NBH is still “far from” supporting the nation’s economic growth.
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