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EURHUF Pierces Last Week's Low Following Comments From NBH's Virag

HUNGARY

EURHUF is extending lower, despite moderate EUR and equity weakness, with HUF seen outperforming its CE3 peers following comments from NBH Deputy Governor Virag. The cross has pierced last week’s low of 371.19 and now eyes support at 369.47 - the April 18 low.

  • Virag said HUF stability is needed to curb inflation and said that while the risk environment has improved, a lasting improvement is needed before the one-day deposit rate can be normalised.
  • Many sell-side analysts have been expecting the NBH to start cutting the O/N deposit rate in June at the latest, aligning the O/N and the repo rates at 12% by the end of the year. The latest comments suggest that such a decision is not yet a foregone conclusion.
  • CPI data is the key release of the week, with base effects expected to drive disinflation further. Prices are expected to cool from 25.2% y/y in March to 24.1% in April. Data crosses tomorrow morning at 0730.
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