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EURHUF Returns to Flat; LNG Strike Action Could Emerge as Potential Tailwind

HUF
  • EURHUF has traded on marginally softer footing since the NY crossover and is close to flat at the time of typing. The cross has been dealing on either side of the 383.00 handle for large parts of the session, with little in the way of domestic catalysts to provide any meaningful follow through in price action.
  • A miss in US PMIs and subsequent uptick in the euro has done little to alter the needle so far. As such, previously noted technical levels remain in play: support at the 50-day EMA at 381.23; initial resistance at 394.67, the Aug 3 high.
  • Worth noting that we still await news on the outcome of a meeting between Woodside Energy and the unions that could lead to industrial action at Australia’s LNG plants as soon as Sep 2 if no agreement is reached. TTF has risen close 2% this month with particular volatility noted in front end prices today - benchmark futures plummeted as much as 18% before paring losses to trade about 11% lower.
  • European gas could come under further pressure if strike action goes ahead. While this has not been a key driver of HUF price action recent months, the forint has been susceptible to swings in prices earlier this year, most notably in June where sell-side attributed the rally in EURHUF to the accompanying rise in natural gas prices.
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