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Euribor Off Lows Alongside Bonds

STIR

The Euribor strip is +1.0 to -0.5 through the blues, with bonds moving off lows in recent trade.

  • A bid in gilts has been noted, but wider bonds were already off lows before the UK open.
  • Firmer-than-expected Japanese CPI had little lasting impact overnight.
  • Monday saw ECB President Lagarde reiterate recent rhetoric re: importance of wage data and the need for confidence in disinflation progress in determining cut timing.
  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price 93bps of cuts through the remainder of 2024, sticking within the recently observed range.
  • The regional calendar is quiet today, with ECB's Elderson unlikely to focus on monetary policy topics at his 1200GMT speech.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-243.9040.0
Apr-243.850-5.4
Jun-243.666-23.8
Jul-243.515-38.9
Sep-243.317-58.7
Oct-243.152-75.2
Dec-242.976-92.8
Jan-252.840-106.4
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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