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Europe Imports Fall but Still Above Normal

LNG

LNG imports to Europe are falling but remain in line with the season normal expected trend.

  • The weekly average is down to 137k tons per day from 179k tons for the first week of June. Any impact of missing cargoes from the US Freeport LNG outage would not yet be seen in the import data. Despite any potential missing cargoes from US there are still 11 tankers due in to Europe before the end of the month. 5 of which are from US, 3 from Qatar, 2 from Russian and 1 from Peru.
  • The estimate quantity of LNG on tankers that have not yet unloaded for at least 20 days has increase 23% over the last week to 2.37m tons according to Bloomberg.
  • With European gas prices continuing to push higher the spread to JKM has increase to -5.75$/mmbtu. The US netback Europe is therefore still very much in favour of flows to Europe over Asia. For August, US to Europe is 29.34$/mmbtu and to Asia is 25.13$/mmbtu.
  • Based on current market levels the spreads should still encourage the delivery of spot cargoes to Europe for the remainder of the year with the Dec22netback to Europe nearly 2$/mmbtu higher.

Source: Bloomberg

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