EURPLN Rises Back to Pre-Fed Levels Following Fresh Cycle Lows

A somewhat hawkish ECB hold decision has kept the pressure on the zloty, with EURPLN last dealing close to the day’s highs at around pre-Fed levels. The cross had dipped to a fresh cycle low of 4.2935 yesterday evening, and closely matched that level again this morning, but has since corrected higher.

• EURPLN remains some way off initial resistance at the 20-day EMA, with yesterday’s move lower reinforcing the bearish theme. This signals scope for an extension towards 4.2870, the Mar 4 2020 low.
• Of note, PLNCZK rallied to just over 5.7000 yesterday – piercing that handle for the first time since June 2021. The cross has recorded a 0.65% pullback today but remains firmer on the week overall.
• POLGB yields trade 10-18bps lower across the curve, with new cycle lows noted on most tenors. The WIG Index stands 0.53% firmer and recorded a fresh all-time high earlier today. As a reminder, the Polish financial markets regulator KNF said it will publish its dividend guidance for banks and insurers for 2024 shortly after 1600GMT/1700CET.